Monday, January 25, 2010

Economy flounders, despite the stimulus - By Ron Paul

(CNN) -- A year after a nearly $800 billion stimulus package was passed, the U.S. economy still finds itself mired in mediocrity.

Economic growth is stagnant, unemployment remains higher than almost any time since the Great Depression and millions of Americans are upset that trillions of taxpayer dollars have been committed to numerous government bailout programs with no improvement of the economy within sight.

They question, rightfully, is where this money is going and why it hasn't been as helpful as the government has claimed.

The problems with stimulus packages are manifold. The primary reason they fail is because they do not address the roots of the problem. If you are unable to identify the cause of your problem, then your solution is doomed to fail.

In the case of the current economic crisis, it had its root in loose monetary policy and easy credit that skewed the allocation of resources within the economy.

Combined with other measures to promote home ownership, these easy money policies caused a massive housing bubble. Money that would have been put to other uses was used to produce raw materials, hire workers and loaned to homebuyers, all while home prices spiked.

The boom was, of course, unsustainable, as many prognosticators pointed out during the housing bubble's peak. But the damage was done, and now that the bubble has burst, we need to stand back and allow the mess to unwind. Yet the government does everything in its power to stave off true recovery and is attempting to re-inflate the bubble.

Rather than allow prices to fall so that the housing market returns to a sustainable level, the government does everything in its power to try to keep housing prices elevated.

The reasoning behind the stimulus package was that underconsumption was to blame for the collapse of the housing bubble and the resulting economic crisis. The government seems to think that if consumption can be spurred, then the economy will be return to normal.

In reality, the collapse of the economy was not caused by a sudden lack of consumption but rather a malinvestment of resources into sectors of the economy that were unsustainable without easy credit. The rise in housing prices was not, in fact, indicative of the new normal but rather an indicator that something was seriously wrong.

Government attempts to boost the economy through measures such as stimulus packages merely take money from hardworking taxpayers and throw that money into unproductive endeavors, into the sectors of the economy that already suffer from malinvestment or into make-work projects. Washington is throwing good money after bad, wasting hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars and accomplishing nothing.
As the eminent economist Frederic Bastiat once pointed out, there is a difference between what is seen and unseen.

The government likes to tout the number of jobs that have been created or saved by the stimulus. But even if these numbers are accurate, they do not count the number of jobs that are not created in other more productive or self-sustaining sectors of the economy. Nor do they count the jobs that will be lost in the future when tax rates will have to be increased to pay off the interest on the debt that is financing much of the stimulus package.

Finally, the stimulus package enables the government, rather than the market, to pick winners and losers.

Whenever the government doles out money, political factors come into play. Firms that are politically well-connected or located in important congressional districts will benefit, while those firms without political connections, the ability to navigate bureaucratic hurdles or that exist in isolated areas unimportant to Washington will lose out.

Once the stimulus money runs out, the companies and jobs dependent on that handout will find themselves once again struggling.

A company that cannot satisfy consumer needs in the marketplace and that requires a government stimulus to remain competitive is a company that should not be in business.

The last thing this country needs is more government spending, especially on such wasteful measures as stimulus packages. We have wasted trillions of dollars in the past year and a half in stimulus packages, bailouts and guarantees to unsound companies.

We have run up our national debt to unprecedented levels. We are destroying the dollar. And it seems as if there is no end in sight.

Loose monetary policy, easy credit and too much debt created the bubble and got us into this economic crisis. Unless the government learns its lesson and opts for restrained monetary and fiscal policy, it risks a complete implosion of the U.S. economy.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Haiti dopo il terremoto

L’ottanta per cento della popolazione vive con meno di due dollari al giorno
L’isola dei colpi di Stato, dove si mangia l’argilla e la natura compie stragi
Due secoli fa la liberazione dalla schiavitù. Da Papa Doc a Aristide, violenze e fallimenti

Se pa fotmwen. Se una frase potesse definire un Paese e il suo posto nel mondo, per Haiti varrebbe questa: se pa fotmwen. In creolo vuol dire «non è colpa mia». E’ una frase del vocabolario quotidiano di Port-au-Prince, dove l’80% della popolazione vive con meno di 2 dollari al giorno. E forse è anche una password per entrare nella storia (rovinosa) di un Paese che ebbe il suo primo (e unico) momento di gloria due secoli fa, quando i neri guidati da Toussaint Louverture prima di tutti gli altri si liberarono della schiavitù e cacciarono i soldati francesi mandati da Napoleone a domare la rivolta.


Di chi è la colpa se una ricca repubblica dei Caraibi — coperta da foreste meravigliose e avendo al comando un Obama ante-litteram portatore dei principi sincretici di egalité, fratérnité e religione vudù— è riuscita a diventare il luogo più miserabile e spelacchiato dell’emisfero occidentale, dove nei mercati delle baraccopoli c’è chi per sopravvivere va a «achté tè» ovvero comprare tortine fatte di terra? Se pa fot mwen dicono i poveri nelle baracche di Cité Soleil o Delmas controllate da gang criminali che hanno fatto dei sequestri un’industria: espressione rassegnata ominacciosa che serve ai più per contemplare la propria miseria (in alternativa a TiTanyin, meglio che niente) mentre ai ricchi (l’1% possiede metà delle ricchezze) serve per girare gli occhi dall’altra parte, verso le dimore dorate e murate sulla collina di Pétionville. «Non è colpa mia» è la frase giusta per la comunità internazionale— che ha fatto molto ma non abbastanza— e pure per la moglie di un ex console italiano che cinque anni fa disse al Corriere che in fondo i disgraziati di Cité Soleil si meritavano quello che (non) avevano. La frase giusta dopo un terremoto: di chi è la colpa se quel pezzo dell’isola che Cristoforo Colombo nel 1492 chiamò Hispaniola sta lì in bilico sulla microplacca di Gonaives, tra le grandi placche del Nord America e dei Caraibi a Sud? Se la faglia è simile a quella di San Andreas che minaccia di far saltare un giorno la California? La cosiddetta «diplomazia delle catastrofi» che talvolta riavvicina Paesi nemici servirà a unire un Paese da sempre diviso lungo immutabili faglie socio-economiche?

La muraglia che si vedeva sulla collina di Pétionville— costruita attorno alle ville di quella che a Haiti si chiama ancora «borghesia» — dev’essere stata danneggiata così come il palazzo del presidente sui Campi di Marzo e le baracche di lamiera di Cité Soleil tra i fetori del porto, dove i bambini razzolano nella fogna a cielo aperto. Se pa fot mwen si può dire davanti a certi disastri naturali. Ma Haiti è anche un concentrato di disastri prodotti (o non ostacolati) dagli umani. Che ironia, un terremoto nel Paese dell’immobilismo: nell’arco di 200 anni la schiera di liberatori, dittatori, generali, religiosi e politici che si sono rubati più o meno fallosamente la palla del potere hanno lasciato ogni volta inalterato il campo della società. E quasi sempre l’hanno lasciato con le proprie gambe, verso un tranquillo esilio.

Già nel gennaio 1904, celebrando un secolo dalla rivolta di Toussaint, l’allora presidente haitiano Rosalvo Bobo disse ai concittadini di essere «stanco delle nostre stupidità» e bollò il tempo trascorso come «un secolo di schiavitù di negri su negri». Spronò gli haitiani a cambiare strada in modo tale che, nel gennaio 2004, i loro discendenti avessero qualcosa da celebrare. Come non detto, Bobo: le celebrazioni del bicentenario si rivelarono l’occasione per una nuova rivolta e l’ennesima defenestrazione. Al potere a Port-au-Prince c’era Jean-Bertrand Aristide, ex sacerdote cattolico cacciato dalla Chiesa per i suoi estremismi da teologia della liberazione. Sognava una grande festa con invitati da tutto il mondo. Solo il presidente sudafricano Thabo Mbeki mostrò qualche interesse. Ma neppure lui alla fine si presentò. Un paio di mesi dopo Aristide fu costretto ad andarsene: forze ribelli conquistarono la città di Gonaives (quella che dà il nome alla maledetta microplacca tettonica) nel Nord del Paese. Erano una ciurma eterogenea quanto violenta di poche centinaia di uomini: ex soldati e scherani delle cosiddette «chimere», i temuti gruppi paramiltiari di cui lo stesso Aristide si era servito contro gli oppositori e per tarpare le recenti proteste studentesche all’università di Port-au-Prince. Nella capitale il fronte anti-Aristide, fuori e dentro i palazzi della politica, prese forza. A fine gennaio il presidente disse al New York Times: «Non me ne vado. Haiti ha subìto 32 colpi di Stato che non hanno mai portato niente di buono». Un mese dopo fu lui stesso a cadere vittima del 33esimo golpe: con il lasciapassare degli americani fu imbarcato su un aereo per il Sudafrica, dove dall’esilio ancora oggi annuncia di tanto in tanto il suo improbabile ritorno. Primo presidente liberamente eletto dagli haitiani nel ’90, otto mesi dopo Aristide fu rimosso da una colpo di Stato in cui il generale Raoul Cedras mise soltanto la faccia, un mento lungo sotto gli occhiali a specchio. Cedras era soltanto l’esecutore, i mandanti stavano nelle ville di Pétionville e in quelle di Miami e ancora più su. A Washington l’ammistrazione di Bush padre non si oppose all’uscita di scena del «prete-rivoluzionario», anzi. Ma fu la stessa Casa Bianca, dove nel frattempo era arrivato Bill Clinton, su pressione della lobby democratica afro-americana e per tamponare l’invasione via mare dei boat people haitiani (41 mila profughi fermati in 2 anni) a decidere il ritorno del prete populista nel 1994.

Non un intervento casuale: gli Stati Uniti hanno sempre giocato un ruolo a Haiti, già occupata tra il 1915 e il ’34 dopo che le tensioni tra neri e mulatti avevano messo in pericolo la pace nelle piantagioni di proprietà Usa. E all’alba del 7 febbraio 1986 fu un aereo da trasporto dell’Air Force ad aprire la pancia per accogliere una lussuosa Mercedes: al volante, accanto alla moglie con la sigaretta in bocca, c’era Jean-Claude Duvalier detto Baby Doc, il ferocemente sorridente dittatore che nel ’71, a soli 19 anni, aveva sostituito il padre «Papa Doc» che deteneva il potere dal ’57, dopo esserselo conquistato con un golpe militare. La dittatura dei Duvalier, lussi sfrenati e squadroni della morte, ha segnato a fuoco e rum la storia di Haiti. Con o senza di loro, il declino di un’economia coloniale fondata sullo zucchero non ha impedito alle famiglie dei proprietari terrieri e della nuova borghesia imprenditoriale di sfruttare i venti della prima globalizzazione con manodopera a costo zero. L’Air Force americana depositò Baby Doc in Francia, dove tuttora vive in un castello. Il suo allontanamento non coincise con una rinascita haitiana. Così come quello dell’autoritario Aristide, nel 2004, non ha cambiato le regole del gioco. Dopo i tonton macoutes di Baby Doc e le chimères di Aristide sono comparse le squadracce degli attachés. La violenza aumenta in prossimità di scadenze elettorali. Nel 2006 una «partita della pace», organizzata da ong internazionali, finisce in strage quando uno squadrone della morte fa invasione di campo sotto gli occhi della polizia: fanno sdraiare i giocatori e ne uccidono alcuni, con un colpo alla testa. Quel voto ha sancito la vittoria democratica di René Preval, l’attuale presidente. Nei tre anni seguenti la violenza a Haiti è diminuita. Merito dei circa 7 mila soldati della forza Onu (Minustah) che dal 2004 amministrano la sicurezza (fu Aristide a sciogliere l’esercito sperando di azzerare i golpe). I peacekeeper armati hanno fatto il loro lavoro combattendo le gang. Mentre la natura ha continuato la strage: 800 morti per uragani nel 2008, lo stesso anno che ha visto le rivolte della fame nelle strade di Port-au-Prince. Anche chi vive mangiando argilla si ribella. Se pa fot mwen, colpa della crisi alimentare mondiale ha detto il governo, pur dando vita a un piano d’emergenza. Nel 2009 l’Fmi e la Banca Mondiale hanno cancellato l’80% del debito estero di Haiti (1,2 miliardi di dollari). A novembre è cambiato il primo ministro. Arriva Jean-Max Bellerive. Avanti un altro, ordinaria amministrazione. La verità è che niente si muove veramente a Haiti, a parte la maledetta placca di Gonaives.

Sunday, January 03, 2010

10 Things Your Auto Insurer Won't Tell You

Updated and adapted from the book, "1,001 Things They Won't Tell You: An Insider's Guide to Spending, Saving, and Living Wisely," by Jonathan Dahl and the editors of SmartMoney.



1. “When I say this is a good policy, I mean it’s good for me.”
While agents can help you navigate auto policies, some may not have your best interest at heart: Often, large auto and home insurers use “contingent commissions” to compensate agents who sold their policies. These fees come in two types: “steering” commissions for signing customers with a particular carrier, and profit-based commissions, when clients don’t file a lot of costly claims. The concern with the former is that unscrupulous agents push certain policies to reap larger commissions; with the latter, they might delay or discourage claims.



How to protect yourself? Ask about commissions, and have prospective agents explain their recommendations.


2. “Young drivers can't catch a break.”
Statistics show that drivers under age 25, especially male, are in a high risk group, and have difficulty getting insured. But the specifics are startling: Drivers in New York under the age of 19 pay a median auto insurance rate that is over 100 percent higher than drivers age 60 to 74, according to a 2009 survey published on InsuranceRates.com.



It typically takes three years of driving experience to be quoted a lower rate, according to AllInsuranceInfo.org's site. But there are other ways to ensure a better rate in the short term. For example, avoid sports cars and opt for a car with a lower engine capacity. Also ask your insurer for ways to score a lower premium. According to information posted on the AllInsuranceInfo.org site, some insurers will give a lower rate to young drivers who complete a defensive driving course.



3. “Spotty credit? That’ll cost you.”
Since the 1990s, insurers have discovered a strong correlation between low credit scores and filing lots of claims. Today, more than 90 percent of insurers use credit history in their underwriting, according to the Insurance Information Institute, a New York-based organization. Although consumer advocates argue that it unfairly penalizes the poor, it can also bite the middle class, says Birny Birnbaum, executive director at the Center for Economic Justice. After all, “87 percent of families in bankruptcy are there because of a job loss, medical catastrophe, or divorce,” he says.



Since many insurers do factor in credit history, it’s important to get your credit report from each of the three bureaus—TransUnion, Experian, and Equifax—and check them for errors before you shop for insurance.



4. “How do we set premiums? That’s for us to know and you to find out.”
As insurers continue to adopt complex pricing systems, not everyone is seeing savings. Why the disparity? For starters, premiums vary widely by state.According to a 2007 study from the National Association of  Insurance Commissioners, the average year-long policy in 2005 cost $949—ranging from a low of $664 in Iowa to a high of $1,343 in the District of Columbia.



What’s muddied the waters even further are the formulas used to set premiums for individuals. Twenty years ago most insurers sorted customers into four or five pricing tiers, based on where they lived, their age, and their driving record. Over the past decade, hundreds of variables have been added to the mix, including credit history, homeownership, and limits on past policies. Since each insurer interprets these variables differently, it’s even tougher for consumers to get a handle on the system.



5. “Your repaired car might look and run like new, but it’s worth a lot less.”
As many policyholders know, when the other party’s insurer is paying for repairs after an accident, you have the right to opt for original manufacturer parts instead of generic aftermarket ones. But even with the best parts and service in the world, a fully-repaired vehicle will often be worth less as a used car or trade-in than an identical car without the accident history.



Luckily, it’s not a total loss—even if you can’t collect diminished value, you can probably write it off on your tax ret urn. (Consult your tax adviser.) That’s why it’s a good idea to hire a post repair inspector, both to ensure that the work was done properly and to assess diminished value.



6. “Totaled your car? Good luck collecting its full value...”
Policyholders may be surprised that insurance companies don’t typically get their valuations from such standard sources as Kelley Blue Book or Edmunds.com. Instead, many use claims servicing companies, which consult proprietary databases to assess valuation. Some firms canvasses dealerships in local markets to build a database of comps.



If your car is totaled, you needn’t accept your insurer’s first offer. Go to Edmunds.com or AutoTrader.com to find better comps, and call the sellers listed on the insurer’s report to verify their price. No dice? If it’s a matter of $1,000 or more, hire your own appraiser and go through an appraisal- arbitration process.



7. "... and we’re more likely than ever to declare your car totaled.”
Given the haircut you’re likely to take when replacing your totaled car, many policyholders would prefer to have repairs covered in all but the most severe accidents. But that’s becoming increasingly difficult.



What constitutes “totaled”? An insurer’s rule of thumb is to deem a car totaled when repairs would exceed 70 percent of the vehicle’s value. And if your car’s frame is damaged, it can remain a safety hazard even when repaired. But if the damage is limited to a few minor, albeit expensive, components, you can appeal your insurer’s decision to total it.



8. “Your mechanic works for us.”
The auto insurance industry has long relied on direct-repair programs, which function like HMOs for ailing cars, with insurers maintaining lists of recommended repair facilities. In the last decade, some insurers have taken the relationship a step further; in 2001, Allstate announced it was buying a nationwide chain of repair shops.



Whether it’s a network of preferred providers or outright ownership, such coziness between insurers and body shops makes consumer advocates nervous. It lets the insurers take too much control over the repair process. And when you have pressure to keep costs low, you sometimes see shortcuts in repairs.



More often than not, you have a choice whether or not to use the insurer-recommended shop. So should you? It’s convenient, and in some cases, policyholders who take their cars there can get their deductible reduced or waived. If you do take the “in-network” route, hire a post-repair inspector to make sure repairs are done properly.



9. “Brand loyalty is for suckers...”
As more insurers adopt elaborately-tiered pricing strategies, rates may differ dramatically from company to company. You might be better off comparison-shopping once a year rather than automatically renewing your policy--especially if your own circumstances change. Start by getting online quotes from Geico and Progressive Direct. Also be sure to ask an independent agent for quotes, as well as from companies like Allstate and State Farm.



10. “. . . but be careful switching carriers—it could cost you.”
No doubt you’ve seen the warnings in your policy that not paying your premiums can cause your policy to be canceled. It might lead you to think that when you want to switch carriers, dropping the old insurer is as simple as stopping payment. Not so. If you don’t pay a bill for the next term, chances are your carrier won’t simply cancel the policy—it may also report your nonpayment to the credit bureaus. (Most insurers are required to give you a certain number of days’ notice before cancellation.) Also, your new carrier will see a cancellation in your history, which could mean you’ll pay higher rates or be declined.



To avoid the issue, get the proper documentation. Ask your current carrier for a policy cancellation form, and make sure the timing is right—that the ending date of your old policy coincides with the start date of your new one.